Mumbai is likely to experience a warmer winter is what meteorologists and weather experts are indicating as the city is reeling under higher maximum temperatures than the average normal for this time of the year.
Even with December approaching, Mumbai is reeling under high temperatures with the maximum temperatures hovering over 34 degree Celsius.
Between Friday and Saturday, the IMD Santacruz observatory recorded a maximum temperatures of 34.8 degree Celsius, one degree above the average normal for this time of the year.
On being asked about the warm weather conditions, Sushma Nair from IMD Mumbai said, “Currently, the easterly component is predominant because of which the temperature is not going down. In fact, the temperatures become anomalous meaning that the maximum temperatures also tend to be higher. Because of this easterly component, the temperatures are expected to rise between November 19 and 21.”
Speaking to The Indian Express, meteorologists said the city is slated to experience a warmer winter owing to a combination of several weather patterns, including the El Niño effect that the country is experiencing this year.
“Whenever there is an El Niño, winters are mild whereas the summers tend to be severe. Therefore, it is unlikely that the city will experience a significant drop in the temperatures during winter months,” said a weather expert.
Meanwhile, Raghu Murtugudde, professor of climate studies at IIT Mumbai said that while some parts of the country may remain cooler, Mumbai is likely to witness a warmer winter because of the warm winds blowing in from the Arabian Sea among other weather conditions.
“Owing to the El Niño, north-west and central India should remain cold. Currently, the Western Pacific is not as cold as it should ideally be.
Furthermore, the Arabian Sea is warmer while the wind changes are bringing colder air to the northeastern portions. This cold air may spread further downwards. However, with the warmer winds blowing in from the Arabian Sea, Mumbai can expect a warmer winter this year,” Murtugudde told Express,
Referring to the high temperatures which the megapolis is currently experiencing, he added, “Even though October has passed, the city is experiencing humid conditions associated with the ‘October Heat’. Another reason why Mumbai is still warm during this time of the year is because of the spell of the extended ‘November Heat’.”
Weather expert Mahesh Palawat from Skymet Weather Services said, “Normally, Mumbai starts experiencing lower temperatures after western disturbances start bringing snowfall in the north. However, this year, the western disturbances have not yet set in, because of which temperatures have remained on the higher side.”
“Mumbai can only expect some relief when the western disturbances start setting in by November end. This is similar to the trend observed last year, when November and December remained hot,” said Palawat.
According to Palawat, Mumbai is experiencing a delayed and warmer winter owing to climate change. “El Nino may not have an adverse impact on the winter. But with climate change, the weather pattern is becoming erratic and undergoing a drastic change.”
For the record, as per IMD scientists, winter sets in the city typically after December 19, with the minimum temperature dipping below 20 degree Celsius. However, last year, the mercury remained relatively high with the maximum temperature oscillating between 32 degree and 35 degrees Celsius until the last week of December.